COLDCARD RNG incident the public record, collected and explained
Informational only, and this site never asks for your seed words. details

Informational only. This is an open source collection of what others have published about the incident, together with an explanation of it. It is not financial, security or legal advice, and not a substitute for professional advice about your own situation. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or speaking for Coinkite. Material is attributed and quoted as published; where sources disagree their scenarios are kept separate with their assumptions rather than reconciled into one answer. Everything is meant to be checked against the linked evidence rather than taken on trust. Act on your own judgement about a particular situation. Editorial standards and corrections.

Do not disclose recovery material to a website, form, message or support account. This site never asks for it, and contributions containing recovery words or private keys are not accepted.

Population collision arithmetic

skot9000-population-collisions

https://x.com/skot9000/status/2084025399839748101

Captured screenshot of the post by @skot9000, posted 2 Aug 2026, 21:15 UTC
@skot9000 posted captured full-size capture → original post →
Author
@skot9000
Organisation
independent
Evidence role
independent-analysis
Posted
Capture status
capture held

Birthday arithmetic at 32 bits of effective entropy: about 77,000 total generated seeds give a 50% chance that two are identical, and 200,000 give about 99%.

This post is registered as evidence and has a locally held capture. The original remains the canonical publication.

How to check this yourself

Compare the screenshot or a quotation against the original while it is available.